Latest Opinion Poll Shows Who Will win Presidential Elections if Elections Were Held Today

A new opinion poll by Mizani Africa has sparked fresh political debate after indicating that President William Ruto is leading presidential preference ratings in Kisumu County, a region long regarded as a stronghold of opposition politics.

According to the survey released on April 30, 2026, Ruto commands 49 percent support among sampled voters in Kisumu, placing him well ahead of other potential contenders. 

The findings suggest a notable political shift in a county historically associated with Raila Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement.

Edwin Sifuna emerged second in the poll with 21.8 percent, reflecting significant support but still trailing the president by a wide margin. 

Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka ranked third with 4.9 percent, followed closely by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiangi at 4.3 percent.

Former Chief Justice David Maraga secured 2.6 percent, slightly ahead of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who polled 2.1 percent. Peter Salasya received 0.9 percent, while Okiya Omtatah stood at 0.6 percent. 

Other candidates collectively accounted for 0.3 percent, while 13.5 percent of respondents remained undecided.

Political analysts attribute Ruto’s strong showing to his recent development tours, government projects, and targeted outreach efforts in the Nyanza region, which appear to be gradually reshaping voter perceptions.

The poll has also raised questions about the current strength and cohesion of opposition figures in Kisumu, with some observers suggesting that traditional voting patterns may be evolving. 

However, critics caution that opinion polls can vary depending on methodology, sampling, and timing, urging caution in interpreting the results.

Supporters of the president view the findings as evidence of expanding national appeal beyond his traditional support bases, while opponents argue that the numbers may not fully reflect on-the-ground political realities.

With the 2027 General Election approaching, the Kisumu poll could serve as an early indicator of shifting political dynamics in one of Kenya’s most symbolic battlegrounds. 

As the political season gradually gains momentum, both government and opposition leaders are expected to intensify efforts to win over undecided voters in regions that were once considered politically predictable.