The county is occupied majorly by the Mijikenda community, with Kamba also having significant number. However, there are also other minority groups in the county.
As we head to the next general election, two political heavyweights have entered the race to challenge incumbent governor of Mombasa Abdulswamad Nassir for the seat.
UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar and Nyali MP Mohamed Ali are eying the seat that is currently held by Abdulswamad.
Governor Abdulswamad is defending his seat on ODM, the party he used to win in 2022. Hassan Omar is also vying UDA, which he unsuccessfully ran on in 2022.
Mohamed Ali who was elected on UDA in 2022 has defected from the party and joined Wiper Patriotic Front.
Although Mohamed Ali has not officially left UDA, he has already fallen out with the ruling party and he is currently in the opposition.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka announced that Mohamed Ali will be their candidate for Mombasa gubernatorial seat.
Mohamed Ali stands a better chance of winning the seat if the three of them go all the way to the ballot because of some reasons.
First, incumbent Abdulswamad and Hassan Omar are both aligned to the government while Mohamed Ali is in the opposition.
Abdulswamad and Hassan are likely to split the pro government votes while Hassan consolidate the opposition votes into his basket.
Secondly, three candidates are Mijikenda and they are likely to divide the votes of the community. Mohamed is then likely to get Kamba votes if he is endorsed by Kalonzo Musyoka.
Kalonzo is the Kamba kingpin and through his influence the Kamba people in Mombasa are likely to vote for Mohamed.
With these two factors, Mohamed Ali is likely to emerge the winner in a three horse race for Mombasa gubernatorial seat.
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