Who Might Win Mbeere North Parliamentary By-election on Thursday (Opinion)

The campaigns for the upcoming by-elections have come to an end and now it's up to the voters to make their choices on the ballot. 

One of the races that have drawn a lot of attention is the Mbeere North Parliamentary by-election contest.

The main horses in the race are Newton Karish of DP and UDA candidate Leonard Wamuthende. Karish is backed by the opposition while Wamuthende is supported by the government. 

Wamuthende is likely to win the seat due to the following reasons:

First, UDA was ranked the most popular party in Mbeere North by Mizani Africa. If this is a true reflection of the ground then the party will boost Wamuthende's chances of winning the seat. This is because Kenyans often vote based on political parties.

Additionally, most elected leaders from Embu county such as Governor Cecily Mbarire and Senator Alexander Mundigi campaigned for Wamuthende. 

The CS for Public Service Geoffrey Ruku and Deputy President Kithure Kindiki who is trying to establish himself as the Mt Kenya kingpin also camped in the constituency to campaign for the UDA candidate. 

These government machineries are likely to sway significant number of people to vote for Wamuthende.

Furthermore, the latest opinion poll that was conducted by Mizani showed the Wamuthende is the most preferred candidate to win the seat. 

The poll revealed that 44.6% of the respondents were supporting Wamuthende while 42.4% were for Karish.