Kalonzo Musyoka’s "dismantling" of Dr. Oburu Oginga on February 13 and 14, 2026, was a masterclass in political positioning.
While Oburu attempted to frame the ODM-UDA cooperation as a strategic necessity for the 2027 polls, Kalonzo countered by labeling such arrangements as "political bribery."
By doing so, he effectively branded Oburu and the "Broad-Based" faction as being "bought" by the Executive, contrasting them with his own image of "Clean Leadership."
Kalonzo’s strategy is to isolate the ODM "Old Guard" from the youth base that is currently revolting under the #DeregisterODM movement.
By attacking Oburu in Machakos, Kalonzo is signaling to the 1 million disgruntled ODM supporters that he—not Oburu—is the true defender of the opposition's soul.
He is framing the Oburu-Ruto deal as a "short-term cash grab" that will lead to the eventual dissolution of ODM into a National Unity party for Ruto's re-election.
The "plan" of Oburu Odinga and the pro-government ODM faction is increasingly clear: to secure a Deputy President slot or high-level Cabinet influence in exchange for supporting Ruto’s second term. However, Kalonzo dismantled this by pointing out the "betrayal" of Edwin Sifuna.
He argued that any plan that starts with the "decapitation" of a party’s Secretary-General is not a partnership but a "hostile takeover" funded by the state to silence dissent.
Rigathi Gachagua played a critical supporting role in this dismantling. The former DP, through his allies like Senator Karungo Thang’wa, mocked Oburu by stating that one cannot reach "Canaan" (the opposition dream) through "Singapore" (Ruto's economic model).
Together, Kalonzo and Gachagua are building a narrative that the current government is using Sh1.3 trillion in "political bribes" to buy regional kingpins, a narrative they hope will unite the Mountain and the Lake against the status quo.
The 2027 Forecast: Integrity vs. Influence Ultimately, the Machakos meeting served as a preview of the 2027 battle lines.
Kalonzo Musyoka is betting that "integrity" and the "Say No to Bribery" slogan will resonate more with a hungry and frustrated electorate than the "Broad-Based" development promises of Oburu and Ruto.
If Kalonzo can successfully paint Oburu as a "State Project," he clears his path to becoming the sole Opposition Flag Bearer, leaving the "Orange House" elders politically isolated heading into the March convention.
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